By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) -U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand that Republican-led states redraw their congressional maps to help his party retain control of Congress in next year’s midterm elections has triggered a national battle over redistricting, with the eventual winner still unclear.
The fight began when Republicans in Texas, the most populous Republican state, approved a rare mid-decade new congressional map aimed at flipping five Democratic-controlled House seats. California, the most populous Democratic state, soon responded by initiating its own redistricting effort targeting five Republican-held districts there. Other states, both Republican and Democratic, have followed suit or threatened to do so.
Republicans won a House majority in 2024 by a margin of only three seats, so every district could prove pivotal. Here is how the conflict is unfolding across the country:
REPUBLICAN GAINS
TEXAS – UP TO FIVE SEATS, BUT ON HOLD
A divided panel of three federal judges blocked a new Republican-backed map that was aimed at flipping as many as five Democratic-held seats, dealing a significant blow to Trump’s nationwide push for friendlier congressional maps. The state immediately filed a notice of appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court, and Republican Governor Greg Abbott called the court’s conclusion that the map discriminated against minority voters “absurd.”
Abbott signed the map into law in August, after more than 50 Democratic lawmakers had fled the state weeks earlier, temporarily preventing a vote. Republicans already control 25 of Texas’ 38 seats under a Republican-drawn map from 2021.
MISSOURI – ONE SEAT
Republican Governor Mike Kehoe signed a new map into law on September 28 that dismantled a Democratic-held seat based in Kansas City, giving his party the advantage in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats. Opponents are attempting to force a voter referendum on the map, while several organizations have filed lawsuits challenging its legality.
OHIO – ZERO TO THREE SEATS
A quirk in state law required a new map for 2026, because the previous one, drawn in 2021, was approved with no Democratic votes. The state’s redistricting commission, which includes five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved a map in October that boosts Republican chances of flipping two Democratic-held seats but fell short of a more aggressive effort that could have targeted three Democratic incumbents.
The map represented a compromise of sorts between the parties. Republicans could have tried to push a more partisan map through the state legislature, but that would have been potentially subject to a voter referendum.
Republicans hold 10 of the state’s 15 seats.
NORTH CAROLINA – ONE SEAT
The state legislature’s Republican majority approved a new map in October designed to flip a Democratic seat, which would give Republicans control of 11 of the state’s 14 U.S. House seats despite its status as a closely divided swing state. Under state law, Democratic Governor Josh Stein had no say in the process.
FLORIDA – POSSIBLY TWO OR THREE SEATS
Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has expressed support for a new map, which analysts believe could take aim at two or three Democratic incumbents. A legislative committee formed to consider redistricting is scheduled to have its first meeting in December, though it is unclear whether enough lawmakers in the Republican-controlled legislature back such an effort.
Republicans control 20 of the state’s 28 seats, after DeSantis and the legislature passed a map in 2021 that flipped four Democratic seats in 2022. Any new map would have to overcome a constitutional amendment, approved by voters in 2010, that bars the legislature from drawing districts purely for partisan gain. Five of seven justices on the Florida Supreme Court, which upheld the 2021 map, were nominated by DeSantis.
INDIANA – EFFORT STALLED
Senate Republicans failed to muster enough votes to back a redistricting effort, despite intense pressure from both the White House and Republican Governor Mike Braun. Lawmakers could try again when the legislature reconvenes in January. In a social media post on Monday, Trump threatened to endorse challengers to any Republican state lawmaker who refused to carry out redistricting. Republicans already control seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.
KANSAS – EFFORT STALLED
Kansas Republicans abandoned an effort to call a special session to redraw the state’s congressional map after failing to garner enough support from lawmakers. But they could try again in January, when the legislature reconvenes. Any new map would take aim at the state’s sole Democratic House member, Sharice Davids. Republicans hold the state’s other three congressional seats.
DEMOCRATIC GAINS
CALIFORNIA – UP TO FIVE SEATS
Voters overwhelmingly approved a new map backed by Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic lawmakers and designed to flip as many as five Republican-held seats in direct response to Texas. Democrats currently hold 43 of the state’s 52 districts.
VIRGINIA – POSSIBLY TWO OR THREE SEATS
Democratic lawmakers in Virginia took the first step toward redrawing the state’s congressional map in October, approving a constitutional amendment that would transfer authority over redistricting from an independent commission to the legislature.
The legislature still has to pass the amendment in a second vote after newly elected members of the General Assembly take office in January. If that succeeds, voters would then have to approve the change before a new map could be installed. Democrats hold six of the state’s 11 seats and would likely try to flip as many as three Republican districts with a revised map.
UTAH – ONE SEAT
A state judge this month threw out a Republican-drawn map as illegally partisan and instead implemented an alternative that appears likely to result in flipping one of the state’s four Republican-held seats to Democrats.
MARYLAND – POSSIBLY ONE SEAT
Democratic Governor Wes Moore created a redistricting commission this month to consider whether to redraw the state’s map, under which Democrats already control seven of eight seats. But the Democratic state Senate President Bill Ferguson has said he does not believe his chamber would support such an effort. Democrats attempted to install an 8-0 map in 2022, but a state judge struck it down as unconstitutionally gerrymandered.
ILLINOIS – UNLIKELY
Democratic Governor JB Pritzker has not ruled out redistricting in response to Republicans. But Illinois already has a partisan map in place, with Democrats controlling 14 of 17 seats, and flipping even one Republican seat could prove challenging.
NEW YORK – UNLIKELY BEFORE 2028
Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul has vowed to respond to Texas, but legal constraints likely make that impossible until 2028. Voters would have to approve a constitutional amendment to permit mid-decade redistricting, and under state law such an amendment cannot be put on the ballot before 2027. Democrats hold 19 of the state’s 26 seats, after a more aggressive gerrymander in 2022 was blocked by the courts.
However, a lawsuit filed on October 27 argued that a Republican-held district centered on New York City’s Staten Island illegally dilutes Black and Latino votes, potentially opening the door to redrawing some of the state’s lines.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax, additional reporting by Andy Sullivan: Editing by Paul Thomasch, Rod Nickel)
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