March 2 (Reuters) – Analysts expect oil prices to remain elevated over the coming days while markets focus on the impact of escalating Middle East conflict on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for more than 20% of global oil.
* Citi sees Brent crude trading between $80 and $90 a barrelover the coming week at least, they said in a note * Prices are expected to pull back to $70 a barrel onde-escalation, Citi said. * Goldman Sachs estimates an $18 per barrel real-time riskpremium in crude prices, the bank said in a note on Sunday. Itexpects this to moderate to a $4 premium if only 50% of flowsthrough the Strait of Hormuz are halted for a month. * In a scenario where flows halt for one month, it is likelythat the TTF and JKM benchmark gas prices could climb by 130% toapproach 74 euros per megawatt hour ($25/mmBtu), Goldman said. * Wood Mackenzie said that oil prices could exceed $100a barrel if tanker flows through the strait are not restoredquickly. * “The disruption creates a dual supply shock: not only arecurrent exports through the Strait halted, but OPEC+ additionalvolumes and ultimately most of OPEC’s spare capacity – typicallya key lever for balancing the global oil market – areinaccessible while the waterway remains closed,” WoodMacanalysts said in a note. * OPEC+ has agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels perday (bpd) for April. * JPMorgan says crude exports through the Strait of Hormuzhave slumped to about 4 million bpd from the usual 16 million,with flows limited to Iranian barrels as tanker traffic dries up * Gulf producers have storage and tanker capacity to cover25 days of stranded supply, JPMorgan estimates. * The bank said that a 3–4 week restriction through theStrait of Hormuz could force Gulf Cooperation Council outputshut‑ins and lift Brent crude above $100 a barrel. * Societe Generale analysts said on Monday that the mostlikely scenario for oil prices is a short-lived spike followedby a partial retracement as markets judge supply continuity tobe credible * Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent oil price assumption from$65 to $80 a barrel, but sees prices reaching $120-$150 in anextreme case of prolonged conflict. * Vikas Dwivedi, global energy strategist at MacquarieGroup, said the world could handle the Strait of Hormuz beingshut in for one or two weeks, but the impact on oil price wouldescalate rapidly after a third week and definitely after afourth.
(Reporting by Kavya Balaraman, Ishaan Arora, Pablo Sinha, Anmol Choubey, and Anjana Anil; Editing by Sonali Paul and David Goodman)
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