(Reuters) -An ageing population need not be the demographic time bomb it is frequently said to be, the International Monetary Fund concluded in a report on Tuesday, citing possible upsides for job markets and productivity.
The key, it said, would be for governments to promote policies aimed at keeping senior citizens fit and employable, together with measures that made early retirement less tempting.
“Population aging has often been linked to gloomy prospects for economic growth and public finances,” it said in a chapter of its World Economic Outlook headlined “The Rise of the Silver Economy: Global Implications of Population Aging”.
“Although population aging poses challenges such as slower growth and increased fiscal pressures, healthier aging trends offer a silver lining by boosting labor force participation, extending working lives, and enhancing productivity,” it said.
It forecast global population growth would slow from 1.1% per year before the COVID-19 pandemic to zero by 2100, with the average age of the world’s population set to increase by 11 years between 2020 and the end of the century.
While it acknowledged big differences across and within countries, it said that, for many, the accompanying increase in life expectancy was coming largely free of chronic illness.
It also cited a survey of 41 advanced and emerging economies which found that a person who reached the age of 70 in 2022 had on average the same cognitive ability as a 53-year-old in 2000, making older citizens more likely to be working and earning.
“A comprehensive approach, combining pension reforms, training, and workplace adaptations, should complement health-oriented interventions to increase effective retirement ages in line with improvements in life expectancy,” it said.
“Also, lifelong upskilling and reskilling programs are crucial to ensure individuals remain employable,” it concluded, noting it remained to be seen whether artificial intelligence in the workplace would be a boon or a threat to older workers.
(Writing and reporting by Mark John; Editing by Kevin Liffey)
